
I typed the command “high-leverage reliever fangraphs.com” into Google over the weekend and set the search vary to the previous month. About 130 outcomes got here up. Subsequent, I ran the identical search, besides with “low-leverage reliever” as a substitute. This time, Google informed me there weren’t “many nice matches” for my search and urged I attempt “utilizing phrases that may seem” on the web page I used to be searching for. Message acquired, Google. Apparently, our protection right here at FanGraphs is biased towards gamers who truly maintain significant affect over the outcomes of video games. That simply gained’t do!
All joking apart, there’s a quite simple cause we don’t write about low-leverage relievers that always. Low-leverage relievers don’t actually exist, a minimum of not in the identical means high-leverage relievers do. For one factor, relievers are naturally going to enter video games in higher-leverage spots as a result of pitchers usually tend to exit video games in higher-leverage spots. The common leverage index when getting into video games (gmLI) for relievers this season is 1.12; that’s 0.12 larger than a superbly average-leverage spot. Furthermore, the low-leverage aid alternatives do exist usually tend to go to the revolving door of replacement-level arms on the backside of every group’s bullpen depth chart, quite than a longtime pitcher whose full-time job is that of a low-leverage reliever. Contemplate that the median gmLI for lively, certified relievers this season is 1.21. By design, most relievers who stick round lengthy sufficient so that you can know their names are going to be pitching in higher-leverage spots. But, that doesn’t imply there aren’t any full-time low-leverage relievers. If something, it simply means these guys are extra uncommon – and subsequently fairly fascinating.
With all that in thoughts, I got down to discover a low-leverage arm value writing about. The certified reliever (0.3 IP per group sport) with the bottom gmLI this season is Thyago Vieira, with a 0.29 gmLI. That may be the bottom gmLI in a season for a certified reliever since rookie Johan Santana’s record-setting 0.27 gmLI in 2000. But, with all due respect to Vieira, he’s hardly probably the most enjoyable a part of that enjoyable reality. (Though, if Vieira goes on to win two Cy Younger awards and a Triple Crown I’ll gladly eat my phrases.) The 31-year-old Vieira completely matches the mould of the replacement-level/revolving-door reliever I described above. He has performed for the Brewers, Orioles, and Diamondbacks this season, and he’s at the moment on the restricted listing at Triple-A within the D-backs group. It appears extremely unlikely he’ll get again to majors and pitch the required 10.2 innings he would want to stay certified at season’s finish. And, sadly, his 0.29 gmLI isn’t practically as noteworthy with out the “certified” qualifier. If I decrease the edge to 30 innings pitched, 25 different relievers have had a lower-leverage season on report (since 1974).
Funnily sufficient, nevertheless, it was after I seemed simply past the certified names that I struck gold iron (assist me out right here steel fanatics, is that the best metaphor?) in my seek for low-leverage relievers. Tanner Rainey of the Nationals is within the midst of what may very well be the lowest-leverage aid season of all time:
Backside 10 Relievers by gmLI in 2024
Minimal 30 IP
You gained’t see Rainey on our reliever leaderboards except you play with the “Min Enjoying Time (IP)” toggle, however he’s just one inning away from qualification. Presuming he continues to pitch precisely one inning per outing, as he has in 33 of his 34 appearances, he’ll have to make 14 extra journeys to the mound over Washington’s 43 remaining video games. That’s greater than doable. And if he have been certified proper now, his 0.09 gmLI would simply rank because the lowest for a certified reliever on report:
Backside 10 Certified Relievers by gmLI Since 1974*
Pitcher | Season | IP | gmLI | pLI | inLI | WPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tanner Rainey | 2024 | 35.0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
Johan Santana | 2000 | 64.0 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.24 |
Donald DeMola | 1974 | 52.1 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.80 |
Thyago Vieira | 2024 | 38.0 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.27 | -0.41 |
Jim Pittsley | 1998 | 60.0 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.25 | -0.42 |
Jay Powell | 2003 | 58.2 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.31 | -0.09 |
John Halama | 2005 | 51.0 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.25 | -0.39 |
Anthony Molina | 2024 | 41.2 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.34 | -0.12 |
Doug Hen | 1979 | 55.2 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.35 | -0.27 |
Wealthy Folkers | 1976 | 51.1 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.31 | -0.18 |
Rhiner Cruz | 2012 | 55.0 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.24 | -0.42 |
*And Tanner Rainey
To maintain this up, Rainey might want to proceed pitching in low-leverage spots, which is much from a assure. The Nationals have extra high-leverage innings to go round now that Hunter Harvey and Dylan Floro are carrying new uniforms, and supervisor Dave Martinez urged on the deadline that Rainey may see a few of these alternatives. That hasn’t actually occurred but – Rainey hasn’t pitched in a lot as a medium-leverage spot this 12 months – however he has made two of his 4 highest-leverage appearances within the two weeks because the commerce deadline, along with his highest-leverage entrance of the season approaching Saturday (gmLI 0.61). It was the second time all 12 months that he entered a two-run sport.
But, even when Rainey makes one other 14 appearances and each single one in all them begins in a equally leveraged spot, he would end the season with a mean gmLI of roughly 0.25. Take that quantity with a grain of salt, since I made some huge assumptions to get there, and since leverage index stats shall be adjusted on the finish of the season to account for the 2024 run setting. Nonetheless, my level stands that we may very well be watching the least consequential aid season in recorded historical past. And to suppose, the fools in Massive Baseball Media are too busy listening to Shohei Ohtani’s quest for a 40-40 season to even discover.
One cause I’m so fascinated by Rainey’s season is that a mean leverage index this low isn’t one thing that occurs by chance. Rainey is the exception to the rule that low-leverage relievers don’t actually exist. He has been within the Nationals bullpen all 12 months, and his position has been fairly darn constant. The proper-hander has but to enter a tied contest or a one-run sport. In the meantime, in 27 of his 34 appearances, he has taken the ball with the Nationals trailing by a minimum of three runs. He has entered with a deficit of a minimum of six runs on 5 separate events, and Washington’s common deficit when he enters a dropping sport is 4.9 runs. To be honest, the Nationals’ -60 run differential suggests their relievers are in all probability getting into with a deficit as a rule; even so, Rainey is clearly reserved for the worst of it. The group is 7-27 (.206) in his appearances and 47-38 (.553) in the remainder of its video games. Washington’s run differential upon his entrances is a dismal -100. On a small handful of events, Martinez has gifted Rainey the chance to pitch with a lead. The catch, nevertheless, is that Rainey solely appears to be allowed to enter late in video games if the Nationals have already scored a minimum of 11 runs and maintain a minimum of a six-run lead:
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• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 11-1
• Rainey enters within the eighth with the Nationals up 11-5
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 14-6
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 14-3
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 11-5
What’s extra, Rainey normally comes on to report the ultimate three outs of a sport that each one however formally has been determined. He has been his group’s remaining pitcher in 26 of the 34 video games he has appeared on this 12 months, which places him twenty fourth amongst all relievers in video games completed. Each pitcher ranked forward of him is undeniably a high-leverage arm; all of them have had a minimum of 14 save alternatives, and so they all boast a gmLI properly above common. Rainey, then again, hasn’t pitched in a consequential spot all 12 months. Not solely is he 0-for-0 in save possibilities, however he doesn’t have any wins, losses, or holds. And whereas he has had his fair proportion of fine and dangerous outings, he’s the one reliever within the sport this 12 months (min. 30 IP) with no shutdowns or meltdowns – video games during which he elevated or decreased his group’s possibilities of profitable by a minimum of 0.06 WPA. If he retains this up, he’ll be the primary reliever since Chris Beck of the 2018 White Sox and Mets to pitch a minimum of 30 innings in aid with out both a shutdown or meltdown outing.
Rainey shouldn’t be a mop-up man; he normally pitches just one inning, and it’s nearly all the time towards the tip of the sport. Neither is he a fungible arm on the backside of the depth chart; the Nationals have caught with him all season regardless of his constantly poor outcomes (5.66 ERA, -0.2 WAR). No, Rainey is what I’m going to name a “farther,” because the higher opposites of the phrase “nearer” — “starter” and “opener” — have already been taken. It’s a time period that solely works in writing, however on the similar time, it’s an apt description of his job. Rainey pitches solely when his group is simply too far forward or too far behind – and it’s too late within the sport – for his efficiency to essentially matter.
Rainey was as soon as a promising reliever. He turned heads in 2020 (2.66 ERA, 42.7% strikeout charge), and after a troublesome ’21 marketing campaign, he seemed sharp once more in ’22. He was the Nationals’ nearer over the primary half of that season (12 saves, 1.72 gmLI), earlier than Tommy John surgical procedure knocked him out for second half and nearly all of ’23. Greater than two years faraway from his surgical procedure, Rainey not appears to be like like the identical pitcher. His four-seam fastball velocity is down by about three miles per hour, and his slider not strikes prefer it as soon as did. From 2020-22, the pitch modeling methods cherished his fastball (133 Stuff+, 68 botStf) and his breaker (131 Stuff+, 55 botStf). This 12 months, neither pitch grades out practically as properly.
Maybe the Nationals have shoehorned Rainey into the lowest-leverage position attainable as a result of they’re holding out hope his stuff will return to pre-TJ ranges. Or maybe they’re giving him late-game alternatives as a real signal of (misguided) respect towards the previous nearer. Both means, Washington clearly needs to maintain him on the most important league roster quite than threat dropping him to a different group. If he has caught round this lengthy, he’s in all probability secure for the remainder of the 12 months. And if Rainey is secure for the remainder of the 12 months, he’s received a fairly good probability to pitch the least significant full season any of us have ever seen.