When speaking a couple of 19-year-old rookie like Matvei Michkov, somebody who remains to be unaccustomed to North American tradition, it is smart why some can be conservative in projecting his numbers. However this Philadelphia Flyers prospect will not be an peculiar participant. He has the upside to blow even his extra optimistic level projections for 2024-25 out of the water.
Michkov’s Profession Numbers
Usually, a great way to investigate high prospects is by their level manufacturing—elite gamers have a tendency to seek out their method out on high, even when they’re extra defensively oriented. For his complete profession, Michkov has crushed the competitors, all the time proving to be prepared for that subsequent step.
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Michkov’s final stint in junior hockey was in 2021-22, a 12 months earlier than he grew to become draft-eligible (D-1). Enjoying in Russia’s Junior Hockey League (MHL), he ranked first amongst forwards in factors per recreation (P/G) with 51 factors in 28 contests. Although the league has 20-year-old members, he rose above all of them.
In his first 12 months of draft eligibility (DY), the subsequent logical step for Michkov was the Supreme Hockey League (VHL). It’s an expert league largely consisting of gamers of their early to mid-20s, however not the perfect on the market. Scoring 10 targets and 14 factors in 12 video games, Michkov ranked second amongst forwards with no less than 10 matches performed in P/G—he put up historic numbers.

As if the VHL was little one’s play to him, Michkov rejoined the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) the place he compiled 5 factors in 13 video games in his D-1 marketing campaign. He had 20 factors in 30 contests in 2022-23, placing him within the 89th percentile for P/G amongst forwards with 10 video games performed (for future reference, these are the necessities for the percentiles). This was the best P/G whole put up in a DY within the historical past of the KHL.
Final season, Michkov furthered his manufacturing with 41 factors in 48 video games within the KHL, placing him within the 96th percentile with 0.85 P/G. This was the best whole ever put up in a season after being drafted (D+1), edging out gamers akin to Evgeny Kuznetsov, Kirill Kaprizov, Vladimir Tarasenko, and different future stars. It’s necessary to acknowledge that Michkov performed a good chunk of ice time, however he was taking part in quite a bit for a cause—he was objectively the perfect teenage KHL participant in historical past.
Now, we arrive at Michkov’s second season after being drafted (D+2). Whereas there aren’t many nice comparisons on the market since KHLers not often put up his numbers, there are a couple of stars to take a look at to probably challenge what he would possibly do within the NHL.
How Equally Dominant Prospects Carried out in Their D+2 NHL Seasons
4 present stars who had been within the 99th percentile for P/G in a league throughout their D-1 and DY seasons, identical to Michkov, are Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, and Jack Hughes. That’s dishonest a bit of bit since Michkov performed most of his time within the KHL (and I’m utilizing the VHL for his DY), however these athletes competed towards these their age—it’s a drawback to the star Russian prospect.
These 4 completed within the 99th, 99th, 97th, and 68th percentiles for NHL P/G scoring of their D+2 campaigns respectively—that averages out to the 91st percentile. If we go off of this unscientific projection, that might place Michkov at round 75 factors over the course of 82 video games in 2024-25. In fact, he’s not on the extent of McDavid or Crosby and might be nearer to somebody like Eichel or Hughes. Nonetheless, that’s promising already.
Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks had related totals if we take a look at percentiles. In HockeyAllsvenskan, an expert league in Sweden however not the perfect (so, considerably akin to the VHL), he was within the 97th percentile in P/G throughout his DY. Taken fifth general in 2017 by Vancouver, he lived as much as that hype in his D+1 season by ending within the 99th percentile for Swedish Hockey League (SHL) P/G—that is the highest league in Sweden and roughly on par with the KHL.
Michkov at this stage is a greater prospect than Pettersson was for my cash, as the previous was sick with pneumonia but had celebrity monitoring numbers. Seeing as Michkov has unimaginable offensive upside, it’s inspiring to see that Pettersson completed his D+2 NHL marketing campaign within the 91st percentile in P/G, successful the Calder Trophy within the course of.
Adjusting to the NHL Shouldn’t Be a Large Drawback for Michkov
Even with these examples, it’s honest to fret about how Michkov will translate to the NHL degree. Once more, he’s performed hockey nearly completely in Russia and remains to be simply an adolescent. Nonetheless, there are a couple of causes to really feel higher about how this tradition shift would possibly play out.
For starters, Michkov has been taking part in skilled hockey for years now. Since 2021-22, he has 103 contests performed throughout the VHL and KHL—that’s a good chunk of time. Connor Bedard, a member of Michkov’s draft class who went first general, didn’t have a single recreation {of professional} hockey beneath his belt till he debuted within the NHL in 2023-24. He scored 61 factors in 68 contests, ending within the 89th percentile for P/G—it was a seamless transition, no less than offensively. Whereas it’s not the case for everybody, the highest gamers often excel fairly shortly.
If there’s fear concerning the cultural issue, we simply talked about Pettersson—he performed completely in Sweden. The truth that Michkov barely speaks English is an comprehensible concern, however former Calder Trophy winners Artemi Panarin (2015-16) and Kaprizov (2020-21) didn’t both. The 2 went from the 99th percentile in KHL P/G to the 98th and 94th in NHL P/G respectively as if the language issue meant nothing.
Even with the numbers and rationale I supplied, I’m not claiming that Michkov will win the Calder Trophy and rating 75 factors (or extra) in 2024-25. However what I’m saying is that he most actually has the potential to attain these items this season so long as he’s given the chance to. There is perhaps some struggles alongside the way in which, however his expertise is so grand that it may not matter—it is a very particular participant.
Stats courtesy of QuantHockey