Hey, what’s up Bud Black, why you dressed as a Smurf with a blue face? Would you favor I name you Blue Black? Bud Blue? Haha, I’m simply joking, I do know you’re now and all the time Bud Black, among the finest managers in baseball, and never somebody I ever want to fret about enjoying somebody with promise. Anyway, I’m going to test in on Michael Toglia. Seems like he’s set to hit cleanup and play each day for the Rockies. Candy, and he received’t be topic to platoons as a result of he’s a swap hitter. Probably will get 162 video games performed and accumulate all types of counting stats. [two games into the season] Oh my God! Why is Michael Toglia being benched for Brandon Drury? Brandon Drury isn’t even on the Rockies! What’s Bud Black doing?! Oh, that’s why he had blue face paint? He’s Jokey Smurf! UGHHHHHHHHHH!!!
[shoots up in bed, sweating] Holy crap, I simply had the worst nightmare. I dreamt that I used to be writing a Michael Toglia sleeper publish, considering Bud Black would truly play him, not considering how silly Bud Black is. What’s that? I actually am writing a Michael Toglia sleeper publish? OH NO!!! UGH!!! So, what can we anticipate from Michael Toglia for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon began final week and are ongoing. Don’t anticipate the rankings to come back out subsequent month. Anyway II, the Michael Toglia sleeper:
Final yr in 116 video games and 399 ABs, Michael Toglia went 25/10/.218 with a 32.1 Ok% and 11.8 BB%. First off, the velocity is goofy. He’s fairly actually the Pitch Clock 12 come to life. The Pitch Clock 12 says {that a} man can steal 12 extra luggage, based mostly on the pitch clock, if he needs. So, if he’s neutrally an 8-steal man, he can steal 20 luggage if he needs. Wait, so which means Toglia is a negative-two-steal man based mostly off his 10 steals final yr? Sure, truly, that’s not improper. In 45 video games in 2023, he stole one bag in MLB. If he had been to steal one bag in 2025 or 12, it wouldn’t shock me. He does stroll loads, so whereas the common might not be nice, he might be on base to steal. Talking of averages…
Or ought to I say spanking my common down prefer it’s a baaaaaaaaaaaad, baaaaaaaaaaaad boy, spoken like Lou Costello. I don’t love splits, however let’s break Michael Toglia in half. Mich Tog was a .197 man with 16 HRs then Ael Lia was 9 HRs and .235. If he’s extra Ael Lia than Mich Tog, then he might be greater than capable of toler with common for tolerable. Much less Seussian and extra how regular individuals discuss, Toglia received’t be dangerous on common if he continues to hit .235 or higher. Will he? Appears potential. He had a .250 xBA. I’ve talked about previously concerning the issues with that stat, however it’s being powered by a number of purple on his Statcast web page.
That is pretty much as good as Statcast will get when you have horizontal imaginative and prescient. It’s like not having peripheral imaginative and prescient, however as a substitute you’ll be able to’t see beneath the horizon, and the horizon on this case ends at Bat Velocity. The excellent news is what we realized this yr. What did we be taught this yr? That Sean Combs is extra like P. Diddly? No. I imply, I suppose, perhaps you realized that, however I’m speaking about what we realized with Elly De La Cruz. Sucks that Toglia can’t make contact, but additionally we are able to’t put an excessive amount of emphasis on that. In contrast to Elly, he doesn’t have insane velocity, until you’re speaking about exit velocity. Toglia’s 92.1 common exit velocity is definitely greater than Elly’s, and, since I’m wanting, Elly’s Barrel% is 12.7, Arduous Hit% is 45.7 and LA Candy Spot% is 35.7. Should you don’t have reverse horizontal imaginative and prescient (not having the ability to search for), you’ll see Toglia handily beats Elly in all of these. Toglia is principally prime 15 in all of baseball for high quality of contact. That alone ought to have you ever drafting him all over the place.
Let’s recap tremendous shortly: Michael Toglia has an elite stroll fee, i.e., he waits for his pitch. House video games in Coors, so elevated balls and BABIP, i.e., he’ll produce higher common and energy than he is likely to be projected for in a lesser park. He hits the whole lot laborious eh-eff, i.e., extra elevated balls and BABIP. I earlier than E, I really imagine Michael Toglia might be a prime 30 hitter with a 40/10/.250 season. On the lookout for this yr’s Brent Rooker? Look no additional. Effectively, slightly bit additional for his projections. For 2025, I’ll give Michael Toglia projections of 77/33/86/.237/5 in 517 ABs with an opportunity for rather more.