I instructed you as soon as, I instructed you one million occasions that there’s nobody technique to pores and skin a fantasy baseball sleeper. They’re not all “draft after the highest 400 and return prime 200 worth.” Loads of them aren’t, tee bee aitch. I used to be trying by means of Steamer projections once more, and, apart from stumbling on seeing Trevor Story had a projected 600+ plate appearances, and cackling for 45 minutes straight, I sorted by homers for third baseman in 2025 and would you have a look at that, Mark Vientos, was on the prime. What a wonderful factor that was to behold. Then I checked out his Mark Vientos’s ADP, noticed round 100 total and my eyes went crossed. NowIamstrugglingtotype amIusingthespacebar oramI hittingthetopofmydesk whereIthinkthespacebaris? By the way in which, I don’t wish to unfold misinformation so I have to level out, Steamer doesn’t give Trevor Story 600+ plate appearances. Fangraphs did. We’ve our personal Steamer projections, they’ve their very own, and others may need theirs. Steamer offers charges and folks add their very own enjoying time. For unstints, Steamer would possibly say Trevor Story may have .0035 HR per plate look, then Rudy provides 550 plate appearances or 125 plate appearances or 600+. So, when individuals say, “Steamer gave Trevor Story 600 plate appearances? That’s nuts!” They didn’t. No matter website you’re at gave him 600 plate appearances. It’s semantics, however I don’t suppose most individuals notice that. So, what can we count on from Mark Vientos for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are all on Patreon. Don’t anticipate the rankings to come back out subsequent month. Anyway II, the Mark Vientos sleeper:
Once I mentioned Mark Vientos had probably the most projected homers, did he? Sure and no. He did based on FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, which is what I used to be perusing. Once I wrote this, we didn’t have our Steamer projections printed but. That does imply Steamer tasks Vientos for probably the most homers if him, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Machado, Jo-Ram and Burger all had the identical variety of ABs. That’s not, nothing. Mark Vientos obtained little or no fanfare for his earlier season, from what I noticed. Possibly if he have been a rookie (he wasn’t), he would possibly’ve obtained extra pub for individuals placing him in the identical convo as different ROY guys, however he had a random 218 ABs in 2023, the place he hit .211. The factor about that random 218 ABs, he additionally had a 114.9 MPH MaxEV. That was prime 20 in all of baseball. It’s not every little thing. You will get into one ball and never be nice, however it’s extremely uncommon. For those who get right into a ball at 115 MPH, then 99 out of 100 occasions, there’s one thing else there. Vientos wasn’t the uncommon exception. He’s one thing.
Mark Vientos’s 29.7 Ok% is regarding, however since he hits the ball so onerous, as beforehand talked about, he had a .324 BABIP, and that doesn’t really feel terribly excessive, even when his fly balls are. Talking of which, his 11.4 Launch Angle is a tad decrease than I’d prefer to see, and he hits a couple of too many floor balls. Speaking swing profile, and it’s flatter than you need, however not Yandy Diaz. His HR/FB% was 26.5, which is excessive. If he can nudge his fly balls to 40%, not far off his 36%, and his HR/FB stays round 20, then he’ll be okay. At 24 years of age, he simply hit 27 HRs and .266 in 413 ABs. That doesn’t occur unintentionally. As somebody who watches a whole lot of Mets video games, Vientos has straightforward energy. The ball zips off his bat. Anecdotal? I don’t know, doesn’t appear it whenever you see his exit velocity and the nice balls he bats up (completely an expression):
Went again and checked out 2021 through 2023 to see when you may pretend this sorta factor. I see no indication of that. High guys for barrels are prime guys. You don’t sting the ball that a lot on common by chance. The weirdest examples I discovered have been an outlier of Sean Murphy in 2023. No less than I believe it was an outlier, however he was harm final yr, so possibly he bounces again. And Rowdy Tellez had an unbelievable yr in 2022 that appears like an outlier, however he can eat. Any hoo! I’m assured in saying no matter Mark Vientos’s ultimate ADP is, it’s not excessive sufficient. For those who inform me, he’s going at 100, I’m drafting him at 85. For those who inform me 85, I’m going 75. For those who inform me 65, I’m going 55. For those who inform me 55, I’m going–Okay, he has no velocity, really easy there, double nickel. For 2025, I’ll give Mark Vientos projections of 82/34/95/.251/1 in 580 ABs with an opportunity for extra.