Goaltending-wise, the Philadelphia Flyers are present process their greatest stretch of the season. Of their final six video games, they’ve the league’s fourth-best save share (.930)—they maintain a 5-0-1 file in that span. However that’s following the worst save share (.851) of their earlier six video games and a 1-4-1 file in addition. This sort of seesawing for a 22-20-6 membership is a giant drawback.
Personally, I imagine that that is extra indicative of the goaltenders than the protection. Pictures allowed and the standard of these pictures allowed have remained about the identical—save share is the one factor that’s drastically altering. Given the gamers and their backgrounds, it is smart why a lot inconsistency exists.
The Flyers have run with a trio of Samuel Ersson, Ivan Fedotov, and Aleksei Kolosov this season, with two of the three under a .880 save share. Some context shall be wanted right here to justify my “it’s on the goalies” declare:
Ersson was a stable backup as a rookie, made the starter in the course of that season, and hasn’t been the identical ever since. Fedotov is a 28-year-old rookie from the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). It’s value mentioning that he misplaced his complete 2022-23 season to army service, which means he went into 2023-24 chilly. He put up common numbers, however the Flyers have been intrigued by the upside, bringing him to the USA and ultimately signing him to a $3.275 million cap-hit contract. Lastly, Kolosov is a 23-year-old rookie from the KHL who put up a 34th-percentile save share (amongst all netminders) in his newest marketing campaign. Nevertheless, his expertise suggests he might be nice down the road.

In an ideal world, none of those guys are taking part in way more than 30 NHL video games in a season, as an alternative sheltered by a high-end starter. In Kolosov’s case, maybe he’s taking part in within the American Hockey League (AHL). However what different choices do the Flyers have than to play the hand they’ve been given? Limiting the utilization of fellows who can’t deal with the starter way of life isn’t a lot of a selection at this level. It’s killing any upside the Orange and Black may need.
Figuring out the Influence of Goaltending on Wins
MoneyPuck’s mannequin is helpful right here. It says that the Flyers’ possibilities of profitable every sport are lessened by 4.86% solely from their goaltending. Their 12th-ranked anticipated aim share hasn’t been sufficient to save lots of them—making the playoffs, a lot much less doing something in them, is a problem with their roster building.
The Flyers are dead-last in objectives saved above anticipated, which is deja vu from the second half of final season. Theoretically, their aim differential can be elevated by round 25 with league-average play between the pipes:
Whole objectives saved above anticipated for each staff within the NHL.
Highest
1. Anaheim 32.16
2. Winnipeg 31.06
3. Washington 29.6Lowest
1. Philadelphia -21.14
2. Pittsburgh -12.14
3. Detroit -11.55Stats by way of @EvolvingHockey pic.twitter.com/wLROZ5b50m
— Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) January 21, 2025
Anticipated objectives aren’t an ideal indicator of precise objectives, however they get the job accomplished. The metric means that the Flyers might be so much higher than they really are. MoneyPuck themselves mission that Philadelphia is on tempo to lose eight standings factors when all is alleged and accomplished—a detriment to their playoff odds in a good Jap Convention.
The Flyers can cross their fingers and hope for one of the best in 2025-26 and past, however that doesn’t appear very proactive. What may be a sensible plan of action?
What the Maple Leafs Did
Look no additional than the Toronto Maple Leafs and their 2024 offseason. Now, Joseph Woll has turn out to be an honest starter for them, however they made one change that surged their upside: changing Ilya Samsonov with Anthony Stolarz.
In 2023-24, Toronto had a tandem of Samsonov and Woll for many of the season. The previous’s .890 save share in 40 video games, nonetheless, held them again immensely. Led by an inefficient puck-stopper, even the Maple Leafs’ elite offense was unable to get them home-ice benefit within the playoffs. They fell to the Boston Bruins in an extra time Recreation 7. Samsonov had a save share of .896 in 5 appearances.
So, common supervisor Brad Treliving determined he wasn’t going to let that occur once more. He acquired the Florida Panthers’ unproven however undeniably spectacular Stolarz, who backed up Sergei Bobrovsky with a league-best .925 save share and a couple of.03 goals-against common (amongst certified goaltenders).

Stolarz has had some robust damage luck this season, however his impression has been obvious when wholesome. From the beginning of the 2024-25 marketing campaign till an damage on Dec. 12, the Maple Leafs solely allowed 2.53 objectives per sport—that was second-best within the NHL. Saving 14.00 objectives above anticipated, they ranked third. Because the damage, they’re 27th and 23rd in these respective metrics. Nonetheless, they’ve the fourth-best file within the league.
Making the shift from Samsonov to Stolarz didn’t take a lot. Toronto let the previous stroll and signed the latter to a $2.5 million cap-hit deal for 2 seasons. Fairly affordable, proper? For such an incredible turnaround, though in a small pattern, that’s some terrific enterprise by Treliving.
Why the Flyers Ought to Repeat the Course of & How They’d Do It
I’ve written about it earlier than, however it’s value reiterating: the Flyers are in goaltending limbo. Whereas it’s accountable for fairly just a few of their troubles, what can they actually do about it? They’re awaiting the arrival of Egor Zavragin from the KHL, who’s placing up celebrity numbers for a 19-year-old. Underneath contract by means of 2026-27, nonetheless, it’s unlikely he’s going to be a Flyer anytime quickly (and it’s not just like the Matvei Michkov state of affairs, both—even when it have been on the desk, he’d be too younger to come back straight away). Possessing some attention-grabbing potential is Carson Bjarnason, however he’s additionally 19.
Associated: Philadelphia Flyers’ Rebuild Development Depends upon Aleksei Kolosov
So, the Flyers can’t actually purchase a long-term starter. However in addition they shouldn’t go away their goaltending untouched for the subsequent two-and-a-half calendar years and count on Zavragin, Bjarnason, and Kolosov to save lots of them. To me, the answer is clear: replicate the Maple Leafs’ 2024 offseason.
Now, you’re in all probability not going to get one other Stolarz available on the market. To be clear, his .927 save share this season won’t be a sustainable mark—Toronto’s technique isn’t foolproof. Nonetheless, that is the trail for the Flyers to make the mandatory transition from a rebuilder within the murky center to a contending hockey staff. Goaltending alone received’t try this, however it’s one of the necessary objects on their to-do checklist.
A brief-term choice with a excessive upside would be the Flyers’ pal. No, they shouldn’t pay premium belongings and decide to an elite starter. Quite, having somebody who can deal with the next workload of video games shall be compromise. As they wait for his or her children (Zavragin particularly) to turn out to be battle-ready, it’s higher to make a transfer than do nothing. Seeing because the entrance workplace preaches its “tradition” time and time once more, profitable video games is of their greatest curiosity.
My imaginative and prescient is that the Flyers have Ersson because the backup (he has higher numbers than Fedotov) and herald a starter who can provide them about 40 video games. Low-risk, high-reward is the sport plan. Karel Vejmelka, who ranks ninth in objectives saved above anticipated amongst all netminders this season, is the sort of participant I take note of. He was presupposed to be the Utah Hockey Membership’s backup however has turn out to be their starter.

Vejmelka had a powerful 2022-23 marketing campaign with the Arizona Coyotes however it won’t have appeared that approach with their defensive woes. He took a step again final season however has re-emerged as an NHL starter. Utah might very effectively carry him again, but when he have been on the open market, that’d be an inexpensive gamble. These are the under-the-radar guys to maintain an eye fixed out for.
The Flyers are in an ungainly place concerning their goaltending, however there’s a answer for them. In my eyes, they need to copy the Maple Leafs’ strategy to the 2024 offseason and purchase a low-risk, high-reward netminder to ease the burden on Ersson, Fedotov, and Kolosov.
Stats courtesy of Pure Stat Trick (except specified in any other case)