Final week we dug into a gaggle of gamers that look primed to breakout this 12 months and produce vital worth to savvy fantasy homeowners. This week, we’re going to flip the swap and take a look at the opposite facet of the equation and what gamers to keep away from on the draft desk as potential busts. For our definition this time round, we’re trying on the prime 100 picks that could be on the skin trying in on the finish of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Oftentimes, it’s simply as essential to keep away from a dangerous decide than discovering the diamond within the tough. This week’s hitter profiles are sure to ruffle some feathers as we dig into some potential busts for 2025.
Willy Adames (ADP 76)
Willy Adames cashed in on a profession 12 months in 2024, hitting .251 with 32 homers and a stunning 21 steals, posting almost 5 WAR, and incomes a profitable free-agent cope with the San Francisco Giants. However fantasy managers anticipating a repeat in 2025 could also be in for a impolite awakening.
The largest purple flag? These 21 steals got here out of nowhere. Earlier than final season, Adames had simply 30 profession steals throughout six seasons. That sudden spike was closely influenced by enjoying for the aggressive Milwaukee Brewers, who ranked among the many most lively groups on the basepaths. Now that he’s in San Francisco, one of many least aggressive working groups, we now have to count on a pointy decline in stolen bases. Even after contemplating the velocity drop-off, Adames’ energy manufacturing can also be a query mark. Oracle Park is a recognized pitcher’s park, rating because the third-worst park in MLB for right-handed energy hitters. Mix that with Adames posting his highest flyball fee of his profession in 2024, and it’s honest to wonder if his 32-homer season was an outlier as properly. His profession numbers recommend a return nearer to the 20 homer vary fairly than one other marketing campaign like 2024. Lastly, we now have to take a look at the batting common which was his highest in three years. His anticipated batting common (xBA) sat at simply .243, exhibiting some overachievement. A .240 common looks like a extra cheap projection for 2025.
With this profile and new state of affairs in San Francisco, there are simply too many considerations with the unsustainable velocity, a power-sapping dwelling park, and batting common threat. I’d a lot fairly take Matt McLain a spherical later or wait 60+ picks for a high-average, well-rounded possibility like Masyn Winn or Xander Bogaerts. Let another person overpay for final 12 months’s profession outlier.
Mark Vientos (ADP 92)
Mark Vientos made a loud impression in 2024, hitting .266 with 27 homers and 72 RBI throughout simply 111 video games. That sort of manufacturing, mixed with the intense lights of New York, has despatched his fantasy inventory hovering. However before you purchase in on the present draft value, there are some considerations we now have to research. His 26.5% HR/FB fee ranked third amongst hitters with 250+ plate appearances, trailing solely Aaron Decide and Shohei Ohtani. Whereas Vientos did submit robust energy numbers within the minors, anticipating him to keep up that fee within the majors is a stretch. A extra cheap expectation is for him to settle within the excessive teenagers, which might curb his dwelling run ceiling.
Statcast confirms the facility but additionally exposes main holes in his sport. Vientos struggles with plate self-discipline, posting below-average contact charges, and an aggressive method that results in frequent chases outdoors the zone. Much more regarding, there’s a transparent blueprint to take advantage of him—he’s a catastrophe in opposition to horizontal motion. In opposition to sliders, sweepers, and curveballs, he hit properly under .200, and he whiffed almost half the time in opposition to sweepers particularly. It doesn’t take a lot for groups to regulate their choices to reap the benefits of these holes.
Vientos isn’t with out worth, however his profile screams threat. Statcast comps him to Teoscar Hernández, Oneil Cruz, and Elly De La Cruz—guys with large uncooked energy however excessive volatility of their outcomes. If all the pieces clicks, he may return robust worth, however his method makes him a primary candidate for extended slumps and irritating inconsistency. With Vientos at the moment being drafted because the seventh third baseman off the board, I’d fairly move and goal extra secure or equally high-upside choices later, like Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg, or Royce Lewis. Let another person take the gamble on this rollercoaster experience.
James Wooden (ADP 51)
We have to get the apparent out of the way in which—James Wooden has immense potential and, long-term, he justifies this draft place and even increased. In 2025, he delivered a .264 common with 9 homers and 14 steals, roughly equating to a 20/30 tempo over a full season. His bodily instruments are vital, with prime fifteenth percentile dash velocity and prime tenth percentile exit velocity. That mentioned, 2025 is the short-term for the 22-year-old, so we have to assess how these instruments are creating.
Wooden’s 14 stolen bases got here with eight caught stealings, elevating questions on his effectivity. He was a bit simpler within the minors, however it’s price monitoring whether or not he retains the inexperienced gentle in Washington. The Nationals weren’t involved with effectivity final season as a group, however till Wooden turns into a extra dependable baserunner, his stolen base ceiling will stay capped. Within the hit took facet of issues his .264 common was barely under expectations, with an xBA of .269, thanks partly to his velocity. Nevertheless, he struggled in opposition to offspeed pitches, making it doubtless that opposing groups will regulate and assault these weaknesses in 2025.
There’s little doubt Wooden can crush the ball, however the issue is that he doesn’t elevate it sufficient to totally faucet into his energy. He posted a 2.4-degree launch angle, one of many lowest within the league, and hit fly balls simply 18% of the time, 5 factors under league common. With out adjustments to his method, his dwelling run complete will stay restricted. Add in a 29% strikeout fee, and there’s nonetheless work to be finished earlier than he reaches his potential. This profile jogs my memory of Ke’Bryan Hayes, however with a bit extra potential to barrel the ball. The long-term upside is very large, however for 2025, anticipating a significant leap appears untimely. Spending a top-four spherical decide on Wooden appears steep, given the probability of comparable manufacturing to final season until he makes a number of changes. I count on gradual enchancment over the subsequent few years, however for 2025, I’d fairly wait a number of rounds for Brent Rooker or Jordan Westburg. Let’s revisit this dialog in 2026.